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  "name" : "分析：中国二氧化碳排放量已连续18个月未增长",
  "teaser" : "最新分析显示，中国的二氧化碳排放量在2025年第三季度同比持平，延续了自2024年3月以来已持续18个月的“零增长或下降”趋势。中国也首次设定了绝对减排目标。",
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  "text" : "（德国之声中文网）由芬兰赫尔辛基能源与清洁空气研究中心（Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air）首席分析师劳里·米勒维尔塔（Lauri Myllyvirta）为气候媒体《Carbon Brief》撰写的研究指出，如果年末排放量没有出现激增，中国的年度碳排放可能在2025年出现下降。 此前分析显示，受疫情后经济复苏推动，中国的二氧化碳排放在2024年上升了0.8%。 可再生能源发力，电力排放保持平稳 报告指出，尽管第三季度电力需求同比增长6.1%，但电力行业的碳排放保持持平，交通运输部门排放下降约5%。 风能、太阳能、核能与水电等清洁能源满足了约90%的新增需求，而天然气发电的增加也在一定程度上减少了煤炭的比重。 相比之下，化工行业的增长抵消了其他行业的减排效果，使总体排放量未能进一步下降。数据显示，今年1月至9月，中国塑料产量同比增长12%，主要受食品外卖与电子商务对塑料包装需求激增的带动。 受中美贸易摩擦影响，中国加大了聚乙烯（最常见塑料原料）的本土生产力度；政府也鼓励炼油厂转向化工生产，以弥补在电动车普及背景下汽油需求下滑带来的损失。 碳排放拐点或已出现 米勒维尔塔表示：“今年前三个季度过后，中国的二氧化碳排放量几乎处于微幅上升或下降的临界点，这取决于第四季度的发展趋势。”他补充说，9月份中国的排放量同比下降约3%，这使得全年总排放下降的可能性显著增加。 这项基于中国官方数据的研究发表之际，联合国气候变化大会（COP30）于本周一在巴西开幕。 米勒维尔塔指出：“排放增减1%看似幅度不大，但其象征意义重大。中国政策制定者在时间上仍为排放峰值预留了空间，尚未确定具体峰值年份。” 中国首次设定绝对减排目标 美国在特朗普退出国际气候协定后，为中国在全球气候治理中提供了更大空间。 今年9月，中国政府首次宣布了温室气体减排的绝对目标。根据新的计划，中国将在2035年前将全国温室气体排放总量较碳排放峰值年份（据法新社报道预计为2025年）削减7%至10%。 这是中国首次明确提出总体减排目标。虽然减幅低于部分国际预期。此前，中国的目标是2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和，但未曾给出短期的具体减排数值。 DW中文有Instagram！欢迎搜寻dw.chinese，看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。 © 2025年德国之声版权声明：本文所有内容受到著作权法保护，如无德国之声特别授权，不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿，并受到刑事追究。",
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